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Nfl Situation Spotlight – #2: Teams With an Above Average Late/close % (lc%f)

One very interesting pattern that has emerged in the NFL since the early part of this decade concerns teams that have been involved in a higher-than-normal percentage of plays where the score late in a game was ‘tight’–meaning, teams were with-in a touchdown of each other.

The variable that I use to measure this situation is LC%, or, Late/Close%. LC% is the percentage of overall plays, looked at from either an offensive perspective (LC%F), or defensive perspective (LC%A), that occurred in the 4th quarter when the score was within a margin of 8 points, along with any plays called in overtime, where of course, teams are tied until the final snap of the ball.

Because a Late/Close situation can only occur from the start of the 4th quarter onwards, the league average for LC% is low–most teams find themselves in this situation only 12.5-13% of the time.

The particular LC% value that is of the most interest with regards to this article, involves teams with a season LC%F of at least 14% and since 2001, teams in this situation (that also happen to be playing before Week 15 of the regular season) are a dismal 458-521 (46.8%) ATS, creating a modest profit of $1,720 with wagers of $110 to win back $100, betting against the team in question.

Based on this information, it would appear that teams who have found themselves in a larger-than-normal amount of situations where the game is on the line, happen to be a lousy wager in future contests.

Considering the large number of games involved here, it’s clear from a statistical standpoint that the connection between a high LC%F in previous games, and poor performance versus the spread in upcoming ones, is real, and will probably repeat itself in 2008 and beyond. The biggest question has to be: why does this trend exist?

A potential answer to this question surfaces when another important condition is considered and that is, to include only teams that have a Clutch Loss percentage of . The value of 25% is significant in this particular case, as you will see below.

Clutch Loss percentage is a stat that I use to reveal the portion of a team’s losses that came in ‘heart-breaking fashion’, namely, those losses where a team was tied or winning to start the 4th quarter, but, eventually went on to give up what proved to be the final score of the game that put them behind for good.

In addition to these 4th quarter situations, any loss in overtime is also deemed to be ‘Clutch’ in my calculation.

Typically, the majority of a teams losses during a season are not that close, and only 23-24% of these will meet the criteria for a ‘Clutch’ defeat, which just happens to be the cut-off percentage that we are using for this situation.

Once a teams Clutch Losses are capped at 24.9% or less, the record for this trend is reduced to 190-258 (42.4%) for a profit of $4,900 over the past 7 seasons.

The interesting relationship between these two closely related factors (higher than average LC%F and a lower than average Clutch loss percentage), along with the fact that teams in this situation have a winning record over 66% of the time (0.500 or better), sheds light on why this trend is so negative for those teams involved.

Essentially, this trend is a classic example of the proverbial ‘let-down’ situation. In this instance, we are talking about winning teams (in most cases) that have had their fair share of closely played games over the course of the season in which they escaped with a limited number of painful defeats, and this combination of factors works toward setting up teams up for a disappointing performance versus the line in upcoming matches.

Whether it be from an overvaluation of team strength by a betting public that often looks at only wins and losses as opposed to the closeness of the games involved, thereby creating an advantageous line for the opponent of the team in question, or, simply players that have become overconfident in their abilities due to their teams winning record and past success in tightly fought contests. Whatever the reasons, teams in this situation are a lousy wager in the long-run.

The above 2 Primary conditions are a potent combination, but, in addition to these, there is one other significant condition that I like to add and it concerns the Over/Under for the current game.

This trend is actually far more effective when higher scoring teams are removed from the equation. Once games with an Over/Under of greater than or equal to 42 points are excluded, the record for this situation is drastically reduced to 104-168 (38.2%) ATS, providing a bigger profit ($5,360) even with the 40% reduction in the number of wagers involved.

There are a handful of Secondary conditions that round out the logic behind this trend: Teams that are coming up on a Bye week are excluded as well as those who have faced an extremely tough schedule (opposition with a cumulative winning percentage > .650 to be exact). Lastly, those teams that found themselves in a 2 touch-down hole at the start of the 4th quarter in their previous game are also removed.

Here are all the details.

(Notes: ASMR stands for Average Spread Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negative–weaker than average. TDIS% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. WT% is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR is the average spread for teams in this situation. For more details, please consult Page 13 of my 2008 NFL Game Sheets Guide.)

Situational Trend #2 Summary

Primary Conditions (Building Blocks)
1) Late Close % For (LC%F) > 14.
2) Clutch Loss % (CL%) 3) Current Over/Under

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)
1) Game is before Week 15.
2) Team not coming up on a Bye Week.
3) Exclude Strength of Schedule (SOS) > 0.65.
4) Exclude S4Q Deficit in Last Game of >= 14.

Situation Stats
ASMR: -1.2
Home%: 52.1
Dog%: 45.1
TDIS%: 96.9
WT%: 66.7
SPR: -0.4
Top Teams: DEN(16); NYJ(14); TEN(14); JAC(12)

Situation Record
Overall (Since ‘01): 61-146 ATS
2007 Season: 12-24 ATS
2006 Season: 13-23 ATS
2005 Season: 9-17 ATS
2004 Season: 10-35 ATS

About the Author

Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and winning selections versus the spread, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com.

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